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Oklahoma State Treasurer October Economic Report

October Economic Report
Gross Receipts for the last 12 months of $17.07 billion are over $167 million, or 1 percent, below revenues from the previous year. Impacted by reduced oil and gas revenue, October marks the first time since March 2021 that receipts to the Treasury fell below the prior year’s 12-month revenue as expected.
Revenue from the state’s Gross Production Tax dropped more than $484 million over the last 12 months, a decrease of more than 25 percent for the year.

Revenues from all sources in October total $1.4 billion. As anticipated based on recent monthly trends, the October total receipts are down by $73.8 million, or 5 percent.

In addition, the previous month comparison shows a decline from September to October of $72 million, or 4.9 percent.

OTHER INDICATORS

12-Month Gross Receipts

The Oklahoma Business Conditions Index in October still remained above growth neutral for the second consecutive month. The October index was set at 53.0, compared to 53.7 in September. Numbers above 50 indicate economic expansion is expected during the next three to six months.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September unemployment rate in Oklahoma was 3.0 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in September, unchanged from the previous month.

Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index showed an annualized rate of 3.7 percent in September. The energy component of the index reflected a decline over the year, dropping 0.5 percent, and the food index ended at the same level as the overall inflation rate.

12-Month Gross Receipts
Combined gross receipts for the past 12 months compared to the prior year show:

  • Gross revenue totaled $17.07 billion, $167.68 million, or 1 percent, below the previous 12 months.
  • Gross income taxes generated $6 billion, an increase of $8.2 million, or 0.1 percent.
  • Combined sales tax and use tax produced $7.1 billion, an increase of $331.7 million, or 4.9 percent.
  • Oil and gas gross production taxes are $1.42 billion, a decrease of $484.1 million, or 25.4 percent.
  • Motor vehicle taxes total $880.5 million, up by $6 million, or 0.7 percent.
  • Other sources generated $1.64 billion, down by $29.4 million, or 1.8 percent.
October Gross Receipts
Comparing gross receipts from October 2023 to October 2022 show:

  • Total monthly revenues are $1.4 billion, down by $73.8 million, or 5 percent.
  • Income taxes – a combination of individual income taxes and corporate income taxes– generated $495.8 million, an increase of $1.3 million, or 0.3 percent.
  • Combined sales tax and use tax – including remittances on behalf of cities and counties – total $590.3 million, an increase of $16.4 million, or 2.9 percent.
  • Gross production taxes on oil and natural gas total $99.8 million, a decrease of $97.9 million, or 49.5 percent.
  • Motor vehicle taxes produced $71 million, an increase of $4.2 million, or 6.3 percent.
  • Other sources, composed of some 60 different sources, produced $146.8 million, an increase of $2.2 million, or 1.5 percent.
Revenue Sources

Gross Receipts to the Treasury

Compared to last month, Gross Receipts in October decreased $71.8 million.

About the Oklahoma
Economic Report

The monthly Oklahoma Economic Report, developed by the office of State Treasurer Todd Russ, provides a timely and broad overview of the state’s economy.

Previous Month Receipts
Economic Indicators

Gross Production Tax equaled $99.8 million for October, outpacing September by $6.38 million or 6.3 percent above last month’s production.

The graph shows the monthly receipts from the Gross Production Tax (GPT) for the past year. The GPT is the Oklahoma severance tax imposed on producers for the extraction of oil and natural gas.

The revenue received from the GPT fluctuates widely because of the volatile nature of commodity prices and production levels. In response, the Revenue Stabilization Fund was created by the Legislature in 2016 to smooth out the peaks and valleys. This fund receives deposits from the gross production tax and corporate income taxes when they are above the five-year rolling average. The savings can then be used to offset future budget shortfalls.

The GPT is an important source of state funding. Over the last twelve months, GPT totaled $1.42 billion.

Gross Production Tax

October’s average WTI Crude Oil Price was down over $3 from the prior month, settling at $85.64. The average drilling rig count in Oklahoma of 37 continues the downward trend line for the year.
WTI Crude Oil Spot Price & Active Rigs in Oklahoma

For October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2%. On an annualized basis, the Dow was down 0.29%.
Oklahoma Stock Index vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Oklahoma component of the Index decreased slightly in October, slipping to 53.0 from 53.7 the previous month.
Business Conditions Index

The U.S. jobless rate remained at 3.8 percent in September, while Oklahoma’s unemployment increased for the month ending at 3.0 percent, up by 0.2 percent.
Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the annual inflation rate remained at 3.7 percent in September. The energy component of the index showed a decline over the year, dropping 0.5 percent and the food index ended at the same level as the overall inflation rate.
Consumer Price Index 1-Month Percent Change

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, lower gas demand, alongside declining oil prices, has contributed to pushing pump prices down.
Weekly Average Price for U.S. Retail Gasoline per Regular Gallon

Average 30-year fixed rate mortgage from January 2000 through October 2023.
Weekly Average U.S. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage

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